On the Imitations of Using Predictive Analysis to Assess the Risk of Carbon Dioxide Corrosion of Steel in Gas Fields

Carbon dioxide corrosion is one of the main problems of gas fields at the present stage of their development. One of the methods for assessing the corrosion aggressiveness of the operating conditions of oil and gas fields is the use of calculation models. Predictive models have been known since the 1970s and were developed mainly for oil fields. Among such models for determining the rates of carbon dioxide corrosion, the most famous are the NORSOK and de Waard-Milliams equations. The experience of Gazprom VNIIGAZ LLC shows that at present, there are no verified models for calculating corrosion rates for carbon dioxide and other aggressive conditions and are not used at gas production, transportation and processing facilities. A comparison of the corrosion rates calculated using the NORSOK and de Waard-Milliams equations showed that they are several times overestimated, which differ significantly from the actual values of total carbon dioxide corrosion at the main gas fields. There is also a difference in the calculated corrosion rates from those obtained by Gazprom VNIIGAZ LLC based on the results of simulation tests. The main differences and discrepancies in the dynamics of changes in such estimated rates of carbon dioxide corrosion from the main aggressive factors (temperature, partial pressure, etc.) are considered. The importance of choosing for obtaining initial data not one, as in the considered predictive analysis models, but several testing methods proposed and practiced by Gazprom VNIIGAZ LLC when assessing the degree of danger of carbon dioxide corrosion in gas fields is emphasized. The main limitations of existing predictive analysis models that do not allow their use at gas facilities are discussed. These include the fact that the calculation models do not allow assessing the danger of local carbon dioxide corrosion, do not take into account the mineral composition of aqueous media, as well as the possibility of formation and properties of corrosion products on steel. It is noted that, according to Gazprom VNIIGAZ LLC, existing models for calculating the rate of carbon dioxide corrosion give significantly overestimated values, are intended for oil facilities and cannot be used at gas facilities. In such conditions, the main method for determining corrosion rates remains simulation tests.

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